Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 1.013927 1.233325 1.467358 1.733524 2.025883 2.335439 2.686224
2024-10-27 0.777821 1.085602 1.437899 1.862379 2.352098 2.892416 3.526976
2024-11-03 0.662198 1.018759 1.446807 1.981561 2.616615 3.333625 4.192009
2024-11-10 0.572211 0.965674 1.459084 2.095092 2.868722 3.758479 4.839728
2024-11-17 0.505334 0.927718 1.478089 2.206334 3.109465 4.163336 5.458831
2024-11-24 0.426458 0.860484 1.450008 2.251457 3.264797 4.464140 5.954811
2024-12-01 0.348887 0.782166 1.397483 2.257420 3.365687 4.695416 6.365507
2024-12-08 0.264218 0.677889 1.298231 2.193314 3.371729 4.806800 6.629449
2024-12-15 0.196076 0.586201 1.206411 2.130567 3.372698 4.906796 6.875564
2024-12-22 0.147797 0.517927 1.140922 2.097094 3.406059 5.042537 7.161376
2024-12-29 0.121089 0.484826 1.125417 2.130698 3.525449 5.284472 7.576289
2025-01-05 0.095040 0.446094 1.096723 2.142417 3.613705 5.486011 7.941030
2025-01-12 0.065114 0.390476 1.039004 2.115208 3.657243 5.642212 8.265958
2025-01-19 0.061328 0.401548 1.096480 2.261575 3.940521 6.109395 8.983287
2025-01-26 0.056526 0.408041 1.145098 2.394136 4.204685 6.552087 9.670369
2025-02-02 0.051543 0.412492 1.189756 2.521006 4.461904 6.987229 10.350052
2025-02-09 0.046779 0.416051 1.232313 2.644677 4.715140 7.418042 11.025574
2025-02-16 0.036273 0.395479 1.228122 2.694841 4.865442 7.715321 11.533885
2025-02-23 0.024711 0.362845 1.197552 2.701450 4.953226 7.930370 11.938325
2025-03-02 0.012226 0.310079 1.120867 2.630233 4.927683 7.994711 12.150501
2025-03-09 0.004617 0.262955 1.048211 2.560435 4.900456 8.054127 12.354298
2025-03-16 0.001279 0.228999 0.997849 2.523165 4.916685 8.168142 12.624774
2025-03-23 0.000371 0.215578 0.992208 2.560580 5.041829 8.427903 13.082882